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Well, I’ll tell you what, I have seen this a couple of vehicles. My dad’s old 1999 ford F-150 was bought brand new. Needed a new transmission almost immediately, then went 240K miles without a problem. Once we stopped using it so much, it started developing all kinds of problems. Never let a car sit. As for my Toyota Matrix, it had some recalls when it was under 100K miles, but now it’s pretty much smooth sailing outside of basic maintenance. Although I suspect my passenger side axle is beginning to fail me. It makes the weirdest noise after I go across the Elizabeth bridge on Route 51 in Pittsburgh. Either way it still runs good. I hope to get a few more years out of it before I send her to greener pastures.
Nick from Pittsburgh
[quote=”Hockeyclark” post=126405]Well, I’ll tell you what, I have seen this a couple of vehicles. My dad’s old 1999 ford F-150 was bought brand new. Needed a new transmission almost immediately, then went 240K miles without a problem. Once we stopped using it so much, it started developing all kinds of problems. Never let a car sit. As for my Toyota Matrix, it had some recalls when it was under 100K miles, but now it’s pretty much smooth sailing outside of basic maintenance. Although I suspect my passenger side axle is beginning to fail me. It makes the weirdest noise after I go across the Elizabeth bridge on Route 51 in Pittsburgh. Either way it still runs good. I hope to get a few more years out of it before I send her to greener pastures.
Nick from Pittsburgh[/quote]
Hi Nick! How are you?
Eric, I am very well, thank you. How are you? I am going to assume well given all the things going on in the ETCG universe. I like this topic very much and I can see myself buying a new truck in a couple of years, probably in the summer of 2017. I can see my Toyota being at the end of it’s service life at that time. I’ll not stop driving my Toyota until it is genuinely spent. Good to hear from you again, Eric.
Nick from Pittsburgh
Cars do take some break-in. People do not realize but that is one huge advantage of buying something a couple years old. They are likely buying it AFTER recalls and stupid crap going wrong and then fixed. You are getting it during it’s prime. And WAY cheaper.
The bathtub curve is the normal cycle of all things –
brand new, break-in, effective life, break down, kiss it good bye. You might call it “running it’s course”.The “break in” phase is when things go wrong but are worth fixing. OR maybe you are adjusting. This is the “new”
The “effective life” is when things are best adjusted and tends to be the longest part. This is the “prime”
The “break down” is when things go wrong but are either NOT worth fixing or not even possible. You are saying
hell with it” This is the “old”Here are a few things –
Relationships – Meet someone, get to know them (and make awkward moves), establish relationship, start tiring of their crap, break-up.
The body – Birth, growing up, adulthood, get older and join AARP, death.
Music – release, played 50 time an hour, makes top 40, gets old, becomes a hated song. This usually happens in the course of a single day. Like anything by Adele.Ownership of something (like say, the latest cell phone) – Buy it and love it, novelty quickly wears off (but payments remain), take it for granted daily, get tired of it, chuck it and buy another new one. THIS cycle is the most vicious.
Sometimes though, parts of that cycle may be skipped, depending on when you got it or other circumstance. Like my step-sister who crashed her 99 mercury cougar back around 2000. The CD4E transmission hadn’t even had a chance to fall apart like they always do.
OR – like my furry monster feline who is ASKING to be strangled if she doesn’t quit knocking shit off my dresser.
Looking at the thumbnail graphic for this video, I didn’t think it was even going to be about cars. I thought it would be about how new techs have a high failure rate before learning the trade. Then after years of fixing cars well with few failures/comebacks, he starts to burn out and makes more and more mistakes as his mind becomes distracted with thoughts of how disgusted he’s become. Finally, at the peak of failure at the far end of the bathtub, he decides it’s time to climb over that edge and bail out.
[quote=”Summer_Night” post=126607]Cars do take some break-in. People do not realize but that is one huge advantage of buying something a couple years old. They are likely buying it AFTER recalls and stupid crap going wrong and then fixed. You are getting it during it’s prime. And WAY cheaper.
The bathtub curve is the normal cycle of all things –
brand new, break-in, effective life, break down, kiss it good bye. You might call it “running it’s course”.The “break in” phase is when things go wrong but are worth fixing. OR maybe you are adjusting. This is the “new”
The “effective life” is when things are best adjusted and tends to be the longest part. This is the “prime”
The “break down” is when things go wrong but are either NOT worth fixing or not even possible. You are saying
hell with it” This is the “old”Here are a few things –
Relationships – Meet someone, get to know them (and make awkward moves), establish relationship, start tiring of their crap, break-up.
The body – Birth, growing up, adulthood, get older and join AARP, death.
Music – release, played 50 time an hour, makes top 40, gets old, becomes a hated song. This usually happens in the course of a single day. Like anything by Adele.Ownership of something (like say, the latest cell phone) – Buy it and love it, novelty quickly wears off (but payments remain), take it for granted daily, get tired of it, chuck it and buy another new one. THIS cycle is the most vicious.
Sometimes though, parts of that cycle may be skipped, depending on when you got it or other circumstance. Like my step-sister who crashed her 99 mercury cougar back around 2000. The CD4E transmission hadn’t even had a chance to fall apart like they always do.
OR – like my furry monster feline who is ASKING to be strangled if she doesn’t quit knocking shit off my dresser.[/quote] Great observations and analogies. I tend to get attached to my vehicles especially since I do all my own work and for me, vehicles are not throwaway purchases like a phone(yet even I still cling to my outdated iPhone 4S). I had one vehicle, my 08′ Silverado brand new and went through the break in and the prime…it didn’t make it to the break down period due to an accident. In any case, I have no clue what period I should consider my current vehicle in..I would say prime despite it’s age..it is reliable and starts up no problem on any kind of day. I have near perfect compression, perfectly shifting tranny, and the body and paint is in great shape for it’s age. I’d say the ol’ girl will outlive me which hopefully is another 50+ years. Of course I’m sure she will have a new breakdown period some point in the distant future. One of the benefits of REALLY old stuff is the only major things to go wrong are in the driveline and engine. Older engines are much cheaper and easier to rebuild at least for Chevy stuff. Pontiac and Oldsmobile…forget about it unless you’ve got deep pockets.
What about if you ride the curve like many times over the years? For example, Classic Cars that are used as daily drivers, or for people that really love their car and they just don´t want to move on (my case for example), I have a reliable POS, but since it was a gift from my father-in-law that passed away two years ago, I decided to ride that curve many times, all the times it will take, but just ride it; and maybe someday, just one day, restore the car to its brand new condition.
Outside of my 1966 VW 1300 Beetle, I’ve only had new Japanese cars, Toyota and Honda.
All the Toyotas and Hondas had very low failure rates in their early years as the Japanese quality programs were working well and they were aiming for high quality, rather than the present cost control at the expense of quality.
So these cars all started with the curve flat for about 5 or years. Then you might get a few minor repairs.
I keep a car until it’s all used up, which is about 15 years in my salted climate. At this point the failure rate skyrockets.
So in mathematical terms, my experience is not a shallow parabola but an exponential.
Which is pretty well a typical medical aging history too!!
[quote=”CarDoog” post=126980]What about if you ride the curve like many times over the years? For example, Classic Cars that are used as daily drivers, or for people that really love their car and they just don´t want to move on (my case for example), I have a reliable POS, but since it was a gift from my father-in-law that passed away two years ago, I decided to ride that curve many times, all the times it will take, but just ride it; and maybe someday, just one day, restore the car to its brand new condition.[/quote] That’s exactly what I was getting at with my post! The curve can repeat after a restoration or even a partial restoration.
[quote=”CarDoog” post=126980]What about if you ride the curve like many times over the years? For example, Classic Cars that are used as daily drivers, or for people that really love their car and they just don´t want to move on (my case for example), I have a reliable POS, but since it was a gift from my father-in-law that passed away two years ago, I decided to ride that curve many times, all the times it will take, but just ride it; and maybe someday, just one day, restore the car to its brand new condition.[/quote]
Put “mother” instead of “Father in law” and you describe my 99 cougar. It is still in good shape except the transmission. The cougar is “sitting” right now. I am not wanting to let it go. I love that car more than my 97 acura, which is just a silly machine.
For “riding the curve”, I don;t know if that curve applies once something has been restored. I mean it could but at that point, a lot of dynamics change. You know much more about it, what to expect, etc. I mean a “curve” still works but just different…
[quote=”Summer_Night” post=127072][quote=”CarDoog” post=126980]What about if you ride the curve like many times over the years? For example, Classic Cars that are used as daily drivers, or for people that really love their car and they just don´t want to move on (my case for example), I have a reliable POS, but since it was a gift from my father-in-law that passed away two years ago, I decided to ride that curve many times, all the times it will take, but just ride it; and maybe someday, just one day, restore the car to its brand new condition.[/quote]
Put “mother” instead of “Father in law” and you describe my 99 cougar. It is still in good shape except the transmission. The cougar is “sitting” right now. I am not wanting to let it go. I love that car more than my 97 acura, which is just a silly machine.
For “riding the curve”, I don;t know if that curve applies once something has been restored. I mean it could but at that point, a lot of dynamics change. You know much more about it, what to expect, etc. I mean a “curve” still works but just different…[/quote] That is true. If I do a restoration myself I know EXACTLY what was done, what parts were used, the quality of the workmanship etc. Good point.
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