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everything happens for a reason have been a technician… and i have notice patters, gas tanks one week, brakes another!
what i think it is has a lot to do with the weather, traffic, especially i think with cars that drive in a lot of stop and go traffic that has a lot of a effect, the cars sit in traffic one busy summer in july we know how busy roads get during the summer and july, it gets hot, certain parts fail at a point and all these cars go through the same abuse at one time, and heavy abuse once again stop and go traffic murder on your car IMO, so all these cars are going through the same thing a 90 degree day where traffic is jammed and the cooling system is working its hardest and things may get a little warmer than usual! so as a result you may get more blown head gaskets, you may get more transmission issues, its going too bring out issues that didn’t present themselves so they need fixed, they come into you and you repair them, there you go there is your pattern repair for over heat conditions, head gaskets, ect.. all the stop and go traffic also means drivers run there AC more because its flipping hot outside and there car isn’t moving very fast because of the traffic or they are going everywhere and one day there AC finally decides too stop working because they just now started too work it after it sat for a while with the AC just used too Defrost winshields.
then you have your cold days which bring about all the bad things that happen too cold cars, slippery road, salt, deep snow that your undercarriage scrapes across, you may notice a pattern in battery failure, you may notice you are replacing radiators more often because they crack or they get coolant well beyond there service interval that has frozen inside of them or god forbid engines because coolant froze in them and the block cracks… water freezing in fuel lines.
there is also just instances where a line of cars are made, and what i like too call a “excusable pattern failure.” happens on that car, and it happens too share the same driveline with another car, so a 2000 Buick Centry custom comes in with a front end groan when you turn the wheel because the upper bearing plates are shot, then you have a 2002 Pontiac Grand Prix come in, and then a 1998 Buck Park avinue or something… slightly different cars but there parts just happen too need replacing at the same time, they have been driven about the same amount, in relatively the same conditions, parts are going too fail in a patter therefore you will be repairing them in a patter.
everything happens for a reason. 🙂
Think it has to do more with word of mouth. If the word on the street is you can do that job, fast, and at a good price; word gets around. So people are bringing the problem to you.
This video explains it better then I can:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pFK1bpQwHF4First I believe there are some weather related problems, in the high heat the AC runs more and harder – people need it fixed just to stay comfortable and actually get it fix. In the winter when it gets dark sooner head lights go out just because they are on longer.
However with that said, truly random events have long runs. There is a test to see if events are random called the “long runs test”. So if you did not see the run on repairs then it would not be truly random. The problem is that the human brain remembers these long runs and they stand out. This is why a human has a hard time making up numbers, so when you make up a number be very careful how many times you do it (there is also the amount of times a digit shows up).
Enjoy these runs with a smile, but just keep in minds the past event does not effect the future events.
Eric,
Between all the comments so far I think you’ve got your answer as to why repairs come in spurts like this.
As you said in your video, some things will be seasonal, but that wasn’t what you were talking about. Some other repairs will be on similar cars and be age based, again not what you were talking about.
There can definitely be a word of mouth aspect to it. If I (an average person, not a mechanic) overhear someone talking about car trouble (at work, at the supermarket, etc), it is unlikely that I’ll butt into their conversation. However, if I just experienced their same issue, I’m more likely to interject that I had the same problem, brought it to your shop, and it was fixed quickly. I’d also be able to tell them what the problem was. It’s easier (as an average person) to dismiss a clicking noise under the hood as unimportant (or something I just can’t afford to deal with right now), but if someone tells you that it means you have problem XYZ and it can be really bad for your car and for your safety, then you’re more likely to stop putting it off and bring your car to the shop, particularly the shop that was recommended.
That said, I don’t think word of mouth explains it entirely. The real cause is there is no cause; it’s random. Which of the following sets of dots and dashes appears more random?
-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-
or
-.–.–…-.–..-…–.-.–….
The first set isn’t random at all, the dots and dashes simply alternate. The second set is a bit more random, although I made it up to intentionally illustrate a point, rather than generating a truly random pattern.Things that are random are not evenly spaced, but come in clusters. Naturally, there will be times when you see more of one repair and less of another, just by chance. The part that makes this hard to believe, is that the human brain is built to look for patterns. We are all searching for patterns all the time. If you can find an underlying pattern to the repair work you are doing, then you can advertise your business better (a US garage wouldn’t run an add about AC repair work in December, for example). When these patterns are hard to find, or non existent, we can trick ourselves. I remember growing up when I would learn a new, big word, I would tend to see or hear it all over the place. People didn’t suddenly start using that word more, I was just finally noticing it. Similarly with repair work, if you only replaced one blower motor this year, you probably wouldn’t think much of it. At the end of the year you wouldn’t look back and think “that’s so odd, I only did one blower motor job this year” (unless you had computerized records and were tracking that sort of thing), but when you do three blower motors in a month, suddenly it’s a repair on the top of your mind, and it starts to stand out.
All that said, try to find any underlying patterns before accepting that it is purely random. Maybe the hot weather is causing more overheating in general and putting more stress on a particular gasket, across makes and models of cars. Maybe people who drive less often in the winter are now on the road, and their cars had all sat for a period of time, so the gaskets dried out and started to crack, and now are showing their age. Maybe all of these semi-seasonal repairs are disproportionately coming to your shop due to word of mouth. Some things like AC repair work are obviously seasonal. Maybe there is a true underlying cause to the repairs you are doing. Or maybe not.
As always, I enjoy the videos. Keep it up.
Complete coincidence.
You wouldn’t call it a pattern repair having 3 cars come in in the same week with nails in their tires, would you? Or two cars that came in with bad batteries! That can only be a coincidence (unless a nail truck overturned on the highway or some other tangible cause)
Anything else is mysticism. Like you said astrology, exactly.
I have the same experience with computer repair. A rash of bad caps, a rash of bad video cards, etc… Even like say you never get any case damage, then one week you get two broken power buttons! Pure coincidence.
Except obviously temperature and other mass changes (large city power failure, cars may be something like bad gas in a nearby pump).
It’s simply trying to find meaning in the randomness of the universe. If we could see all the variables to the universe, we would see we do not have free will. However, because we cannot see all the variables that make up reality, for all intents and purposes, we do have free will as events are sufficiently “random”.
Not sure if that’s where you were going with this eric!
[quote=”cb7ftw” post=105293]Think it has to do more with word of mouth. If the word on the street is you can do that job, fast, and at a good price; word gets around. So people are bringing the problem to you.
This video explains it better then I can:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pFK1bpQwHF4%5B/quote%5DThis is not what I’m seeing. People don’t have control over what breaks on their vehicles. It’s not like they price shop for mechanical failure. It just happens. I’m talking about seemingly random break downs that just happen. It seems I’m not alone in this either as many have posted about similar experience.
[quote=”asetoftools” post=105354]Complete coincidence.
You wouldn’t call it a pattern repair having 3 cars come in in the same week with nails in their tires, would you? Or two cars that came in with bad batteries! That can only be a coincidence (unless a nail truck overturned on the highway or some other tangible cause)
Anything else is mysticism. Like you said astrology, exactly.
I have the same experience with computer repair. A rash of bad caps, a rash of bad video cards, etc… Even like say you never get any case damage, then one week you get two broken power buttons! Pure coincidence.
Except obviously temperature and other mass changes (large city power failure, cars may be something like bad gas in a nearby pump).
It’s simply trying to find meaning in the randomness of the universe. If we could see all the variables to the universe, we would see we do not have free will. However, because we cannot see all the variables that make up reality, for all intents and purposes, we do have free will as events are sufficiently “random”.
Not sure if that’s where you were going with this eric![/quote]
I see your point but in fact I think you’re supporting my theory. I’m not saying it’s anything one can predict, but it’s uncanny sometimes how you have one week of one repair and then something else entirely the next. I did mention that climate could be a major contributor and I concede that. However, there are times where some seemingly random repairs come in that are just to similar to ignore. Such as blower motors on similar vehicles in a short time period. Even nails in tires being similar is interesting. It’s not like you get those every day, but one day you might see 3 in the same day. And no, not everyone drove through the same construction site.
Thanks for your input.
[quote=”AT4711″ post=105321]Eric,
Between all the comments so far I think you’ve got your answer as to why repairs come in spurts like this.
As you said in your video, some things will be seasonal, but that wasn’t what you were talking about. Some other repairs will be on similar cars and be age based, again not what you were talking about.
There can definitely be a word of mouth aspect to it. If I (an average person, not a mechanic) overhear someone talking about car trouble (at work, at the supermarket, etc), it is unlikely that I’ll butt into their conversation. However, if I just experienced their same issue, I’m more likely to interject that I had the same problem, brought it to your shop, and it was fixed quickly. I’d also be able to tell them what the problem was. It’s easier (as an average person) to dismiss a clicking noise under the hood as unimportant (or something I just can’t afford to deal with right now), but if someone tells you that it means you have problem XYZ and it can be really bad for your car and for your safety, then you’re more likely to stop putting it off and bring your car to the shop, particularly the shop that was recommended.
That said, I don’t think word of mouth explains it entirely. The real cause is there is no cause; it’s random. Which of the following sets of dots and dashes appears more random?
-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-
or
-.–.–…-.–..-…–.-.–….
The first set isn’t random at all, the dots and dashes simply alternate. The second set is a bit more random, although I made it up to intentionally illustrate a point, rather than generating a truly random pattern.Things that are random are not evenly spaced, but come in clusters. Naturally, there will be times when you see more of one repair and less of another, just by chance. The part that makes this hard to believe, is that the human brain is built to look for patterns. We are all searching for patterns all the time. If you can find an underlying pattern to the repair work you are doing, then you can advertise your business better (a US garage wouldn’t run an add about AC repair work in December, for example). When these patterns are hard to find, or non existent, we can trick ourselves. I remember growing up when I would learn a new, big word, I would tend to see or hear it all over the place. People didn’t suddenly start using that word more, I was just finally noticing it. Similarly with repair work, if you only replaced one blower motor this year, you probably wouldn’t think much of it. At the end of the year you wouldn’t look back and think “that’s so odd, I only did one blower motor job this year” (unless you had computerized records and were tracking that sort of thing), but when you do three blower motors in a month, suddenly it’s a repair on the top of your mind, and it starts to stand out.
All that said, try to find any underlying patterns before accepting that it is purely random. Maybe the hot weather is causing more overheating in general and putting more stress on a particular gasket, across makes and models of cars. Maybe people who drive less often in the winter are now on the road, and their cars had all sat for a period of time, so the gaskets dried out and started to crack, and now are showing their age. Maybe all of these semi-seasonal repairs are disproportionately coming to your shop due to word of mouth. Some things like AC repair work are obviously seasonal. Maybe there is a true underlying cause to the repairs you are doing. Or maybe not.
As always, I enjoy the videos. Keep it up.[/quote]
Very interesting points and probably the best argument to date. I did mention temperature as a factor and I will defiantly agree with that. Let’s not rule out logic after all. I will also agree that as humans we tend to try and make order out of the chaos. But there are times where coincidences are just a little too strange to ignore. I’m not saying theres any meaning in that, just that it’s interesting.
Thanks very much for your input.
Something else to consider. I live in a small town. But vehical wise, it most likely has over 20,000 vehicles. What percent, need work each month? 10%? How many are bad head gaskets? 100? If 10 of those show up at my door step, in one week, is something strange going on? Imagine if you live in a city with a poplulation of above 500,000.
Here is something kind of neat to think about. If I could do oil changes on just 1% of the 20,000 vehicles. And make $2 profit …
Even though I’m a DIY person I had an experience with pattern failures. My 1989 Mazda I recently replaced the radiator on and no more than 3 days after my dads 1993 dodge Dakota sport blew the top of the radiator ironically in the middle of the summer. As you probably know it gets hot in the midwest and it happend about a week ago in the height of summer so I kind of expected this to happen especially science my dads radiator was missing about 80% of the cooling fins. So I knew it was gonna go at one point it’s currently parked ( not the first time ) until I get the money for the radiator. So Eric do you have any good tips for replacing radiators? And by the way I would just like to say it has 270,000 miles on the magnum 3.9 L original motor, rebuilt 4 speed tranny still runs like a champ besides the radiator obviously. Still a beautiful ride. thanks eric always a fan.
[quote=”Kurt1997″ post=105457]Even though I’m a DIY person I had an experience with pattern failures. My 1989 Mazda I recently replaced the radiator on and no more than 3 days after my dads 1993 dodge Dakota sport blew the top of the radiator ironically in the middle of the summer. As you probably know it gets hot in the midwest and it happend about a week ago in the height of summer so I kind of expected this to happen especially science my dads radiator was missing about 80% of the cooling fins. So I knew it was gonna go at one point it’s currently parked ( not the first time ) until I get the money for the radiator. So Eric do you have any good tips for replacing radiators? And by the way I would just like to say it has 270,000 miles on the magnum 3.9 L original motor, rebuilt 4 speed tranny still runs like a champ besides the radiator obviously. Still a beautiful ride. thanks eric always a fan.[/quote]
I have a few videos on radiator replacement. Nothing specific to those vehicles though. Just be sure and bleed the air out when you’re done.
Hello Everyone!
To awnser the question you pose in the video. Yes. I have. Aperently it’s not just isolated to the aviation industry if you see it too.Examples:
Once we had a rash of Go-Around computers failing. (A Go-Around computer on a C-5A/C-5B/C-5C Galaxy aircraft is used when the aircraft is about to land, and they need to ‘Go-Around’ for a seccond landing attempt for various reasons)
Another time we had bunches of Heading Indicators failing,
Another time it was Altimeters, one of wich I replaced the altimter in the same aircraft in the same posotion 3 times in a week.
Another time it was Flight Data Recorders
Yesterday on two different aircraft we had pretty much the same problem. (Rate Gyro Failures)
Once we had a bunch of termnal blocks falling off the windshields.
[quote=”InsyleM” post=105825]Hello Everyone!
To awnser the question you pose in the video. Yes. I have. Aperently it’s not just isolated to the aviation industry if you see it too.Examples:
Once we had a rash of Go-Around computers failing. (A Go-Around computer on a C-5A/C-5B/C-5C Galaxy aircraft is used when the aircraft is about to land, and they need to ‘Go-Around’ for a seccond landing attempt for various reasons)
Another time we had bunches of Heading Indicators failing,
Another time it was Altimeters, one of wich I replaced the altimter in the same aircraft in the same posotion 3 times in a week.
Another time it was Flight Data Recorders
Yesterday on two different aircraft we had pretty much the same problem. (Rate Gyro Failures)
Once we had a bunch of termnal blocks falling off the windshields.[/quote]
It’s cool that we’re getting aviation techs to weigh in on this. Thanks for your input.
I have been a tech for a number of years. Like Eric, I have worked for Acura for a number of years before I went to independent shops. While at Acura there was a solid month of p0300’s coming in and almost very one was solved with valve adjustments.
My first week at my first independent shop I have quite a few head gaskets come in. ( july in AZ )
03 olds 3.4, 67 VW bug, 01 mx6, 99 civic, 87 mustang 5.0. There are one or two more that I can’t remember.
It always comes in waves. It is quite an odd thing to experience.
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